Sulphur's 2025 Rally: What's Behind the Price Surge and What Comes Next

Two years ago, with sulphur trading below US$100 per tonne, we argued that battery metals were building a second demand pillar the market had not priced in. That thesis has now played out in full. Sulphur has been one of 2025's strongest-performing commodities, with prices at their highest levels since 2022 and still rising this month. The question for buyers and sellers is no longer whether the market has changed, but how to operate in it.

The numbers

Middle East FOB spot prices rose about 62% in the first quarter of 2025 alone. After a pause in mid-year, a new rally began in late August. By late September, Middle East export prices were around US$320–325 per tonne FOB, and delivered prices into Indonesia rose from about US$280 per tonne CFR in mid-August to above US$380 per tonne by mid-October. Mid-2024 delivered prices in Indonesia were near US$100 per tonne, so the market has more than tripled in about fifteen months.

What is driving it

1. 1Indonesian nickel. New high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) lines continue to start up and run at or above capacity. Producing one tonne of nickel intermediate through HPAL takes roughly ten tonnes of sulphur, and global sulphur use in nickel processing roughly doubled between 2020 and 2023 before rising further this year. Indonesia has become one of the world's largest sulphur importers.
2. 2Fertilizer demand holding firm. Firmer phosphate prices have kept fertilizer producers in India, Morocco and China buying, even as they push back on price.
3. 3Tighter supply. Disruption at Russian refineries and gas processing plants has sharply reduced Russian exports, with reports that Russia has begun importing sulphur. Middle East volumes remain large but are increasingly committed under term contracts.
4. 4Switching behaviour. Some plants with sulphur burners are switching to imported sulphuric acid as sulphur rises, which shows how stretched buyers' economics have become.

Where it goes from here

Sharp rallies in sulphur have historically been followed by sharp corrections, as in the second half of 2022. Some analysts expect a period of softening after this run as buyers step back. But the structural picture is different this time. Metals demand does not switch off with the fertilizer season, and supply growth depends on hydrocarbon projects, not sulphur prices. We expect volatility around a higher floor rather than a return to the sub-US$100 world of 2023.

The other risk is concentration. The Middle East supplies close to half of globally traded sulphur, with most export terminals inside the Persian Gulf. Any disruption to Gulf shipping would hit sulphur faster and harder than most commodities. Buyers who depend on a single origin should take that seriously.

What this means for clients

• Buyers: secure term volumes. Spot exposure in a rising market is expensive. Quarterly or annual contracts with price formulas tied to published benchmarks provide cost predictability.
• Diversify origin. North American supply, including Canadian product shipped from the West Coast, reduces reliance on Gulf and Black Sea flows and avoids the main shipping chokepoints.
• Sellers: reconsider stockpiles. At today's prices, stored sulphur that was uneconomic to move two years ago may now justify processing, forming and shipping.
• Mind quality and logistics. Formed granular product, consistent purity and reliable loading matter more when every cargo carries higher value.

Aquamerge arranges sulphur supply for industrial, metals and fertilizer buyers, structuring term and spot transactions with verified product, compliant documentation and coordinated logistics.

Sources: Argus Media, Argus Sulphur and Monthly Sulphur Outlook (Sep 2025); World Fertilizer, "A bull run: recent sulfur and sulphuric acid market developments" (Jun 2025); Argus Media, "High sulphur prices pressure Indonesian buyers" (May 2025); CRU Sulphur magazine, "Full speed ahead for Indonesian nickel" (2024); SunSirs/China Chemical Information Weekly (Oct 2025).