Traditional Housing Construction Cannot Keep Up with Increasing Rates of Migration.
Prince Edward Island is experiencing a population boom, and it’s becoming clear that housing in the province cannot keep up. According to Statistics Canada, the population estimate for the province is about 167’680. The province saw a growth of 4’817 people in 2021, the most significant population increase in over 50 years, and estimated that change in the first half of 2022 has already outpaced 2021. The growth is no accident; it results from a meticulously planned five-year strategy to increase the population and reverse the province’s aging population. However, a study released by the city of Charlottetown, the capital of P.E.I., found housing construction slowed as the people began to grow. The study also found that the roots of the housing crisis went back as far as 2014-15, when various factors contributed to a construction slowdown.
The province began discussing a demographic shift in 2016 when government officials realized they faced an aging population with little-to-no growth. The population strategy was released in 2017 to increase the population by 2’000 people a year, reaching 160’000 by 2022, by increasing immigration and enticing people from other provinces. The strategy proved highly successful, and by 2021 the area was experiencing growth at more than twice the planned rate. The province doubled the number of new Canadians immigrating to P.E.I. to around 2’300 annually. Even at the pandemic's peak in 2021, immigration was higher than in 2015. Simultaneously, interprovincial migration saw an even more enormous surge. From 2013-15, the province had a net population loss of hundreds yearly from interprovincial migration. In 2016, the area broke even, and the net gain increased. In 2021 alone, interprovincial migration saw an increase of almost 2’000.
When the population began growing in P.E.I in 2017, the construction industry ramped up to build new housing units. However, despite a drastic increase in construction, the housing market is still struggling to keep up. According to Statistics Canada, the rate of housing completions tripled last year to almost 1’400 a year, up from 400 in 2015. But with population growth at nearly 5’000 in 2021, there is still a staggering shortage. The average household in P.E.I is 2.3 people, according to the 2021 census. With these numbers in mind, the 1’400 units would house approximately 3’200 people, leaving a shortfall of 1’800 people or 780 housing units.
In the 5-years leading to 2021, housing construction in the province could only keep pace with population growth in 2020 when the pandemic somewhat slowed migration to the island. Between 2016-19, P.E.I. experienced a shortfall of over 7’000 housing spaces or more than 3’000 housing units.
Long-Term Solutions Needed As 5-Year Growth Strategy Comes to An End.
To learn more about the factors contributing to the housing crisis in PEI and what to expect next, go to CBC.ca:
“That five-year growth strategy introduced in 2017 expires this year. In an email to CBC News, the Department of Economic Growth said the government is working on a new plan, and noted Economic Growth Minister Matthew MacKay addressed the idea of a new plan in the legislature in late March. MacKay praised the foresight of the previous government for bringing the plan forward, but said there have been lessons that would be considered in a new plan.
‘We need to look further out,’ said MacKay. ‘The new strategy, once we do look at it, we need a 20-year vision. We need to look at what this is going to look like as far as our housing, our education, our infrastructure system. So, that's what my focus is going to be.’
The new plan is under development and is expected to be discussed by the legislature's standing committee on economic growth in early September.”
From Housing Crisis, Labor Shortage at Odds In P.E.I.'s Population Strategy - CBC
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-population-strategy-labour-housing-1.6517796
Photo Source: JOSE MARTIN RAMIREZ CARRASCO via Unsplash
Do you think that modular construction could help mitigate the housing crisis occurring throughout most of Canada’s provinces? Why or why not?
Written by S2A Modular & Associates Inc.
July 14th, 2022