Demand Rises as Nuclear Power Plants Retire
The province of Ontario is seeking more power producers as demand rises and nuclear plants begin nearing retirement. The Pickering Nuclear Generating System, which accounted for 14% of electricity generation in 2021, is set to start a phased shutdown as soon as 2024. Other nuclear plants are undergoing renovations over the next few years, with numerous out of service at a time. Many officials believe the demand will see the province turn to more natural gas generation despite attempts to end reliance on it. If this is true, greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector will rise for at least another 20 years. However, with more renewable energy-generating options coming onto the market and storage batteries allowing for long-term energy storage, maybe natural gas is not the only solution available.
The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) claims confidence that the nuclear gap can be filled with the procurement it is undertaking. However, even as nuclear plants come back online, the IESO projects a growing electricity supply gap, especially as broader electrification takes off - primarily in the transportation sector. By about 2038, the IESO projects that the net greenhouse gas emission reductions from electric vehicles will offset electricity sector emissions. Power demand from growth in electric vehicles is expected to rise at a much faster rate starting in about 2035. Around the same time, even if all current producers renew their contracts, the projected gap between necessary and available energy is expected to hit 5’000 megawatts, or enough power for 5 million homes during the summer.
Renewable energy in Ontario comes with a hefty amount of political baggage. The cost of electricity became a primary source of anger leading up to the 2018 election that saw the Liberals lose a majority government. Bills for households had roughly doubled over a decade, partially due to the Liberals’ introduction of green energy initiatives that saw consumers pay above-market rates to power producers who held long-term contracts. The Progressive Conservative party canceled 750 contracts in their first term, claiming the province did not need the power and that the arrangements were driving up costs. In the past, renewables have proven incapable of filling the gap on a reliable basis. However, it is questionable if this was partly due to most households' lack of availability and willingness to adopt renewable technology. As more power-generating options become readily available for consumers, it is possible that families can even begin generating a net-positive amount of energy independently.
A spokesperson for the IESO said the current procurement process would address the province’s needs into the next decade. The operator is looking into adding more to keep the grid reliable long term. It is seeking more non-emitting resources, including small modular nuclear reactors and storage capacity and new energy efficiency programs. The IESO is set to report back to the energy minister in November on the potential gas moratorium and a plan to get to net zero electricity.
A Reliable, Affordable System Is Needed to Phase Out Gas Plants
To learn more about why Ontario needs power now and what the province is considering solutions, go to Toronto.CityNews.ca:
“While the IESO has acknowledged that more gas generation will be needed in the near term, Energy Minister Todd Smith has asked it to explore a moratorium on new gas plants.
‘We want to get to net zero in the electricity grid,’ Smith said in an interview. But he noted that an IESO report last year examining whether natural gas generation could be phased out by 2030 found that it would lead to rotating blackouts and higher electricity bills. ‘We have to ensure that we have a reliable system and one that’s affordable, and if we have an affordable electricity system, then we’re going to see electrification happen in other areas to reduce emissions,’ he said.
Rupp Carriveau, director of the Environmental Energy Institute at the University of Windsor, said Ontario should wean itself off natural gas generation, but it’s very difficult to do. ‘It’s incredibly reliable, it’s quite efficient, and it until recently had been quite cost-effective,’ he said. ‘But to me it’s a little bit disappointing that there isn’t more of a focus on pushing more renewables even though they are apples and oranges, for sure.’”
From Ontario Seeks New Electricity Generation as Demand Rises, Nuclear Plant to Be Retired - City News Toronto
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Written by S2A Modular & Associates Inc.
July 17th, 2022